Being a fan from the bottom up, Part 2
Following up to see if my team is going to get relegated. Answer: Probably so
If you’re interested in reading part 1 of this, you can.
Back on March 2, I told of you of the sorry state of Everton FC, a team that could be relegated out of the English Premier League for the first time ever (the league only dates back to 1992) and out of the top flight of English football for the first time since 1951. And the news since then has been bad. Very very bad.
On March 2, Everton was in 18th place with 21 points, sitting above Bournemouth and Southampton. After losing on April 27 at home to Newcastle 4-1, Everton now has 28 points and is above only Southampton.
Here’s how it’s gone:
March 5 - Everton traveled to Nottingham Forest and got a 2-2 tie. Everton led most of the match, but gave up a tying goal in the 77th minute. Forest is a team that Everton needed to beat. They did not.
March 11 - Everton beat Brentford at home 1-0. Dwight McNeil scored in the game’s first minute and Brentford, who have greatly exceeded expectations this year, continuted their late season slump and couldn’t get back in the game.
March 18 - One team that is more messed up than Everton is traditional powerhouse Chelsea (mostly due to the horrific ownership of this guy.) Everton took advantage of that mess and got out of Stamford Bridge with a 2-2 draw. Ellis Simms scored his first ever Everton goal in the 89th minute to get the point.
April 3 - Everton played its second straight disfunctional powerhouse team by facing Spurs. Defender Michael Keane gave up a penalty that Harry Kane converted. Keane later scored on a screamer of a shot from distance to tie the match in the final minute 1-1.
April 8 - Old Trafford is usually not a place where Everton does well. And they did not. They lost 2-0 to Manchester United. This match started at 4:30 am Pacific Time and I had just returned from Europe and jet lag made me wide awake for this. I wish that had not been the case.
April 15 - For a long time, Fulham NEVER won at Everton. But Fulham won last year. And they did it again this time, downing Everton 3-1 in a match that was not particularly close. Overall Fulham has won just two of 15 matches at Goodison Park.
April 22 - A trip to Crystal Palace might have been a good time for Everton to pick up a win. But it wasn’t. They didn’t lose. The teams played a scoreless tie.
April 27 - Everton started this game at home against Saudi-owned Newcastle United. If they won, they would have been in a safe position. If they tied, they would improve a little, but still be in trouble. A loss would have bnen devasting. And it was as Newcastle, which will likely finish third or fourth, ran Everton out of its own stadium by a 4-1 score.
So that’s one win, four draws, and three losses in the span of six weeks with nine goals scored. The team Everton was tied with on March 2, Bournemouth, had won five and lost three and moved from 19th to 14th and will very likely be safe from relegation.
Everton’s next match is Monday, May 1. They travel to play at Leicester City, who have one point more than Everton and are also in the relegation zone. It’s the only Premier League match on Monday, so it will be televised on USA Network if you wish to wile away your lunchtime (kickoff is at noon on the West Coast) watching two of the worst teams fight for survival.
It is as, the English like to say, “a relegation six-pointer.” Which means that if one team wins it is effectively a six point swing in the standings for the winner and loser. A draw will likely not help other teams unless the teams just outside relegation: Nottingham Forest and Leeds, both with 30 points, lose on the weekend.
Is there much hope for Everton? There’s a little, but it’s getting increasingly harder to see. Everton has scored just 26 goals this season. They have played 33 matches. Soccer is low-scoring. But it’s not THAT low-scoring. Everton had one game this year where they scored three goals. Just one. That was back on October 22.
The team’s leading scorer is Dwight McNeil with five goals. Demarai Gray is second with four. Anthony Gordon is third with three goals. Gordon doesn’t even play for Everton anymore. He was sold to Newcastle amidst great fan discontent with him.
Everton is also very poor away from home. They have won just one match and that was at last place Southampton on October 1.
The rest of the schedule is a 9:30 am kickoff on Monday, May 8 (it’s a holiday in the U.K. because it’s Coronation Weekend) at Brighton, a team that is much better than Everton. Then on May 14, Everton hosts Manchester City and that will pretty much be like the Ted Lasso episode where AFC Richmond plays Man City in the FA Cup final. Although the teams did play a 1-1 draw back on New Year’s Eve in Manchester. But Manchester City must win this game to win the league and it’s likely going to be a bloodbath.
After that, it’s a trip to Wolverhampton on May 20. Wolves aren’t particularly good, but it’s a road match. It would be better if Wolves were already safe from relegation, but Everton rarely benefits from mental edges. The season concludes with all 20 teams playing at the same time on Sunday, May 28. Everton’s final match will be at home against Bournemouth.
If Everton plays well or gets lucky, I can see them getting seven more points (wins over Wolves and Bournemouth and a draw with someone who is not Man City.) Would 35 points be enough to avoid 18th place? That’s a very iffy proposition that also requires two to three teams going through very bad patches. 35 points would have meant relegation last year.
More than likely, Everton will be playing next season, supposedly its last one at historic Goodison Park, in the Championship against the likes of Stoke and Milwall, and not in the Premier League against the likes of Man City and Liverpool. Or even teams with smaller budgets that are run well like Brighton and Brentford. Or teams with competent managers like Aston Villa.
I’ve supported some incompetently run teams in my lifetime, but Everton may be the worst of the bunch. Everton supporters hate its management even more than Dodgers fans hated Frank McCourt. It is hard to tell who is in charge, what the plan is, or even what the future holds.
Remember, you survived the visit of ESPN College Gameday to the UCLA campus.
You can survive this.
Be careful when you visit Millwall.